The Iron Law. Of Iron.

As discussed (and profited from in recent years) I am a big proponent of the Iron Law of Pac 10 Football, that you can’t win the Pac 10 title without a senior (or insanely veteran-seeming) quarterback. There have been exceptions to this lately (Jeremiah Masoli and Sanchez, for instance), but it’s still a good place to start, and a good, basic rule of thumb.

2010 ushers in The Second Iron Law, one that is every bit as obvious and never, ever mentioned outside of the four walls of my house: every team plays nine games against fellow Pac 10 teams in the Pac 10 round robin, so some teams play five Pac 10 home games, some teams play four. I will commit a research day to proving this proposition, but it strikes me that this constitutes a Second Iron Law: five Pac 10 home games are a key ingredient for success.

Two Iron Laws. For flavor, I have stirred in returning starters (good), players lost to the NFL (bad), and assembled an uncanny preview of the 2010 Pac 10 football season. Only one team has both of those Iron Laws working for it. I guess it makes picking number one easy; the rest is hard.

1. Cal has Kevin Riley returning as a senior starter, and has an awesome schedule. This is a program oh-so-close to putting it all together, and if 2010 isn’t their year I can’t imagine when it’s going to be. I see Cal having a good edge in their schedule–four Pac 10 away games (including one at USC), but getting Oregon, UW, Stanford at
home, and they don’t leave Berkeley after November 6. 15 returning starters, lost three players to the draft. And, yes, this is the team that got rolled like 38-0 at Husky Stadium last November, and picking them makes me uncomfortable. But I must.

2. OSU is always good, and looks good again this year, but they’re going to have a new quarterback. They have a great schedule, though–four Pac 10 away games (including Washington), but getting USC, Oregon, and Cal at home (Cal off a bye). These fucking morons scheduled Louisville, TCU, and Boise State in their nonconference schedule–they always start slow anyway, but this team could go 0-3 out of conference and then piss everybody off by winning the Pac 10. 16 returning starters, lost one player to the draft.

3. Oregon had nearly everybody returning, including an off-the-charts senior quarterback, and I’d have felt pretty good about our chances, but, of course, Masoli’s out for the season. That’s a big chink in the armor. Oregon even has a terrific defense, which is a strange thing to have in the Pac 10, and I (and most oddsmakers) still put us sort of reluctantly atop the Pac 10 preseason lists, but that’s a hell of a lot to put on the shoulders of two guys named “Nate Costa” and “Darron Thomas.” I take some comfort in the fact that Costa is a senior, and has gotten his feet wet with Kelly’s system, but I have to admit that Oregon’s downside without a veteran QB is high. Crap schedule: Oregon has five Pac 10 away games, including USC and Cal. 18 returning starters, lost three players to the draft.

4. USC has a sophomore quarterback and, as you say, a lot of talent around him, but that program has had so much coaching upheaval in the last two years (and potential sanctions later this week) that I’m hoping they’re still a mess. This is probably wishful thinking. Five Pac 10 away games for the Trojans, including their dreaded visit to the Reser Stadium (they have not won in the Willamette Valley in four years and counting). 14 returning starters, lost seven players to the draft.

5. Washington, mostly because of five Pac 10 away games that include Oregon, USC, and Cal. Look, the First Iron Law dictates that I have to put money on every game senior Jake Locker plays this year, and I like doing so, and–better still–Washington has 17 returning starters and coaching stability, but this remains a team one year removed from 0-12. They’ll cover spreads, they’ll get to a bowl, but it’s hard to move them higher than fifth. 17 returning starters, lost two players to the draft.

6. I lump Arizona, Stanford, and Washington together in my head–all teams that lost key people and have suspect defenses, but return terrific quarterbacks (only Locker is a senior, of course). Any one of those three has a legitimate shot, as well as huge question marks. Pencil in Stanford behind Andrew Luck; this is the team that beat the snot out of USC in LA last year. Alas, Ferd has five Pac 10 away games, including Oregon, Washington, and Cal. Good luck with that. 15 returning starters, lost three players to the draft.

7. UCLA will be solid again, great on defense and trying like hell to keep their sophomore quarterback Prince upright for a change. That team is snakebit at quarterback. Only four Pac 10 away games, but they include Washington, Oregon, and Cal. 14 returning starters, lost three players to the draft.

8. Arizona has Nick Foles coming back and a great schedule with only four Pac 10 away games (including Oregon) with Cal, USC, and Washington in Tempe. Or Tucson. Whichever. Problem being, they have just 9 returning starters. Lost two guys to the draft.

9. WSU (18 returning starters) can’t keep losing forever. Tons of experience–just none of it good. Just four Pac 10 away games, none of them impossible (UCLA, Stanford, ASU, OSU). They’d better take advantage of this. Nobody got drafted.

10. Imagine what you don’t want–ASU has it. A new quarterback, just nine returning starters, and five Pac 10 road games that include Washington, Cal, USC, and OSU. If these guys can’t finish behind WSU, nobody ever will. They lost four players to the draft.

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