The thesis: A seasoned Pac 10 senior quarterback gives his team a huge advantage; put your money on his side of the spread and become rich. It works: see 2007 and 2008.
Alas: 2009 is not a year for seasoned Pac 10 senior quarterbacks. OSU has a corner on the market in Moevao and Canfield. The only other senior starter entering the season is ASU’s Danny “Who’s Danny Sullivan” Sullivan; I don’t know if I can define “seasoned,” but Danny Sullivan fails to pass the “Danny Sulllivan” standard for quarterback seasoning.
This means that in 2009 I am an advocate of betting money on the OSU Beavers. Eegs. In fact, as the season begins, I have no other team to bet on.
Four senior quarterbacks are backups entering the season, notably Stanford’s Pritchard and OSU’s Canfield (less notably UCLA and WSU’s two Kevins, Craft and Lopina). If (when) they get playing time, Pritchard’s 19 starts definitely qualify him as seasoned, as do Canfield’s 13 starts. (Craft and Lopina, seven starts between them, are NOT seasoned.)
(I have not formulated a theory that says “a junior quarterback with 15 starts will make money, too,” but on the basis of Jeremiah Masoli’s presence in the Junior list I would really like to.)
Pac 10 quarterbacks entering 2009:
Senior:
OSU, Lyle Moevao/SR (19 GP) (Canfield/SR/13 GP)
ASU, Danny Sullivan/SR (3 GP)
Junior:
Oregon, Jeremiah Masoli/JR (12 GP) (Costa/JR, Thomas/SO)
UW, Jake Locker/JR (13 GP) (Fouch/SO/8 GP)
Cal, Kevin Riley/JR (10 GP) (Mansion/SO, Sweeney/FR)
USC, Aaron Corp/JR (0 GP) (Barkley/FR)
Sophomore:
Arizona, Matt Scott/SO (1 GP) (Foles/SO)
WSU, Marshall Lobbestael/SO (7 GP) (Lopina/SR/2 GP)
Freshman:
Stanford, Andrew Luck (0 GP) (Pritchard/SR/19 GP)
UCLA, Kevin Prince/FR (0 GP) (Craft/SR/~5 GP)
Gambling: Week 1
PSU vs OSU: NO LINE (no bet)
September 16, 2009 at 12:36 pm |
It’s funny that you chose the popular but wise “senior QB equals victory” theory as the lens through which to view this season. Many others did the same in the preseason, and I think it ended up contributing to what is looking like serious overhyping of the Ducks.
As you say, there are no senior QBs of note in the Pac-10 this year. If that’s what you are looking for, though, it’s a short step to the conclusion that the Ducks — with an upperclassman returning starter who played very well last year — are in the best position of the bunch.
Why it’s funny is that, while others were touting Masoli as a dark horse for Heisman, I, ever pessimistic, was sounding the alarm with what I explicitly referred to as “the Adam Peck theory of football.”
Possibly this was a misattribution.
As I recall it, though, the Peck theory states that teams are most often mismeasured because of overhyping of their flashy skill position players. Look instead at the big men on the OL and DL, though, and you will see the true potential of the team.
I read somewhere that the Ducks, with only 20 career starts among its OL starters, are 118th out of 120 teams in Division I in that category. Ouch. The DL is better off, but must replace probably the best defensive end the school has ever produced in Nick Reed.
So, yes, our runners cannot really run and our catchers cannot catch, but put them behind last year’s OL (the school’s best ever?) and I suspect they do just fine, and the Guard fills up with stories about how talented the new skill guys are.
On the other side of the ball, I mostly agree that the defense has been given inordinate credit for the limited success of the opposing offenses. They stopped BSU mostly because the Broncos suddenly became incompetent. Yes, we are the sort of defense where, if you leave the ball lying on the carpet or throw it at us, we will try to snatch it — but isn’t everyone? (WSU excluded. Sigh.)
The effort and outcome were better against Purdue, and we made things happen that are beyond just the standard expectations for our defensive scheme. The fact remains, though, that we needed a poor decision by an open receiver to avoid the crapshoot of overtime. If he stands still instead of jumping unnecessarily, his feet probably stay in bounds.
I cannot resist being hopeful, even if we turn out to be dreadful this year. I was trained through years of 2-9 seasons to expect always that this will be the breakthrough week, and I sure hope that Saturday’s game against Utah is exactly that.
Ultimately, though, from a strategic perspective, this is looking like the year before the year. Young OL, young defense, still fairly young QB, mostly new receivers, entirely new (and ideally second-string) tailbacks.
When Masoli is a senior and has a veteran line in front of him, watch out.
November 18, 2009 at 11:04 pm |
OSU’s the only Pac 10 team with a senior QB; their results to date with Canfield starting:
Week 1 vs PSU: No line.
Week 2 vs UNLV: -6.5, doesn’t cover.
Week 3 vs Cincinnati: +1, doesn’t cover.
Week 4 vs Arizona: -2.5, loses by 5, doesn’t cover.
Week 5 vs ASU: +5, wins by 11, covers.
Week 6 vs Stanford: +2, wins by 10, covers.
Week 7 bye
Week 8 vs USC: +21, loses by 6, covers.
Week 9 vs UCLA: -10, wins by 7, doesn’t cover.
Week 10 vs Cal: +6.5, wins by 17, covers.
Week 11 vs UW: +13.5, wins by 27, covers.
That’s 5-4 against the spread with three to play. My $1,000, bet $100 per game, would have done this thus far:
Week 1: $1,000
After Week 2: $890
3: $780
4: $680
5: $780
6: $880
7: Bye
8: $980
9: $870
10: $970
11: $1,070
Week 12 vs WSU: TBD.
Week 13 vs Oregon: TBD.
Bowl game: TBD.