There used to be an Iron Law of Pac-10 football: You could not win the Pac-10 without a senior quarterback. USC has broken the iron law of Pac-10 football twice in the last three years with Leinert and Booty, but USC is in the midst of a gravity-defying run powered by an entire team of five-star superathletes.
But think back to the year that ignited USC: Carson Palmer was a senior that year. Last team to win that wasn’t USC? Washington State with Jason Gesser, senior. Last year Washington won the Pac 10? Tuiasosopo was a senior. Last year’s terrific OSU team? Matt Moore, a senior. The year Cal turned it around, they did it behind Aaron Rogers, senior. You look back at Oregon’s most successful teams, and they’ve had senior quarterbacks (two of three of whom weren’t that great until they were seniors): Clemens, Harrington, O’Neill. And, as discussed, if you hearken back to Oregon’s opponent in the Las Vegas Bowl, you’ll recall BYU was led by a senior quarterback. Every non-USC team I think of that outperformed expectations, let alone won the Pac-10, had a senior quarterback.
The problem is that four teams have senior quarterbacks this year, and juniors Nate Longshore and Willie Tuitama, with full years under their belts, almost count as seniors. The Pac 10 is loaded; we’ll all beat the living daylights out of teams elsewhere in the country, but it’s hard to count on our senior quarterback(s) outperforming everybody else’s.
Senior QB: Dixon, Oregon; Booty, USC; Brink, WSU; Edwards, Stanford.
Junior: Carpenter, ASU; Tuitama, Arizona; Olson, UCLA; Longshore, Cal.
Sophomore: Canfield, OSU; Locker, UW.
August 31, 2007 at 5:28 am |
I’ve been a fervent believer in the senior QB = title run theory since the Gesser turnaround. In his early years, the Cougs were terrible and finished in the cellar. Coming into his senior year, the conventional wisdom was that WSU was returning almost all of its starters but that those starters mostly sucked. Then games started and the team was both suddenly good and had that sense of drive and mission that can carry you to the Rose Bowl.
The other pattern we’ve seen is the shaky junior season, particularly among the Ducks, that sets the stage for senior breakthroughs. Akili shared time as a junior and mixed flashes of greatness with silly mistakes. A year later he was a top-five draft pick. Same with Kellen Clemens, same with Danny O’Neil (though his senior season wasn’t nearly as good as most people remember — the WSU game in particular was one of the worst performances I’ve ever seen), same with almost everyone except the born-ready-to-play Musgrave and Joey.
This is why everyone here was so upset to hear about Dixon’s summer baseball adventure. We know the template: struggle as a junior, talk all your teammates into sticking around over the summer for a million hours of extra work, dominate as a senior. Talent, supporting cast, etc. don’t seem to matter that much. Like you said, it’s an iron law. So then what the hell was Dixon doing leaving town when all he had to do was follow the proper steps to greatness?
All the camp reports have been positive, and the party line is that Dixon didn’t miss a beat and will be fine. Bellotti even says (finally) he’s the QB and won’t get pulled every time he throws a bad pass. But it’s hard to avoid the suspicion that the football gods will be displeased by his actions.
August 31, 2007 at 3:36 pm |
It occurs to me that if this Iron Law is truly an Iron Law, then if you wager $100 on every game in which a Pac-10 senior quarterback (and, probably, senior-equivalents like Tuitama or Longshore, but I’ll leave them out for now) faces a non-senior quarterback, you will become rich. I’ll follow this through the year, using the crop of four teams mentioned above for as long as their seniors remain starters (Oregon, USC, WSU, Stanford):
Week 1:
Pick: Oregon (+16) vs Houston
Pick: WSU (-15) vs Wisconsin
Pick: USC (+48) vs Idaho (err, I don’t think I’ve ever seen a +48 before)
Pick: Stanford (-17) vs UCLA
Let’s assume I start with $1000. Over the course of the year, watch how theoretically rich I become.
September 2, 2007 at 9:35 pm |
After week one, assuming 10% vigorish (betting $110 to win $100), my Pac-10 Senior Quarterback Betting Formula has whittled my $1,000 down to $770. Oregon was the only team that covered; Stanford, USC, and WSU didn’t beat the spread.
September 10, 2007 at 12:24 pm |
After week two my Pac-10 Senior Quarterback Betting Formula yields two wins (WSU and Oregon), and no losses (Stanford and USC didn’t play), so I now have $970. (net: -$30)
September 15, 2007 at 10:39 pm |
Week 3: Three wins (Oregon, Stanford, USC), one loss (WSU) against the spread. Total for the week: +$190; Overall total: $1160; Net: +160.
October 8, 2007 at 9:24 pm |
Week 4: Cal vs Oregon, ASU vs Stanford, WSU vs Arizona, USC vs Washington. Non-senior QB covers the spread in all four games. (Cal beats Oregon; ASU creams Stanford; Arizona creams WSU; Washington plays USC tight. Total for the week: -$440. Overall total: $720; Net: -$280.
Week 5: USC, WSU, and Oregon are the only three teams left in the Pac 10 with veteran senior starters. Stanford’s senior is out, replaced by some wet-behind-the-ears kid who only knows how to throw clutch fourth down passes to defeat “the best college defense in history.” Oregon doesn’t play this week. USC’s Booty not only fails to cover the 41 point spread, he manages to break the all-time Pac-10 mark for failure by losing to a team he was favored to beat by 41 points. WSU’s Alex Brink breaks Jason Gesser’s WSU passing record, and manages to beat the six point spread and lose only by three. Total for the week: -$10. Overall total: $710. Net: -$290.
I am starting to question my hypothesis.
October 20, 2007 at 10:54 pm |
Week 6: Oregon plays WSU–senior on senior, so discard it (all 52-7 of it). USC starts someone other than Booty–discard it. Stanford starts that freshman who beat USC–discard it.
Week 7: I’m running out of seasoned senior quarterbacks. Oregon beats the 13 point spread against UW (55-34 at Husky Stadium, with me in attendance), USC starts Sanchez, WSU has a bye, and Stanford’s still starting Tavita Pritchard. I win $100. Overall total: $810. Net: -$190.
November 13, 2007 at 2:30 pm |
week 8: Oregon’s senior quarterback beats (and covers against) Booty-free USC. WSU’s senior quarterback beats ( and covers against) UCLA. I win $200. Overall total: $1010. Net: +$10.
week 9: Oregon’s senior quarterback beats (and covers against) ASU. WSU’s senior quarterback loses to (but covers the 14 point spread against) Cal. USC’s Booty is back again, playing against OSU. USC beats OSU 24-3, and covers their 15 point spread. I win $300. Overall total: $1,310. Net: +$310.
week 10: WSU’s senior quarterback beats Stanford 33-17, covering their 11 point spread. USC’s senior quarterback beats Cal 24-17, covering their 4 point spread. UO had an open date in advance of a Thursday game. I win $200. Overall total: $1,510. Net: +$510.
Note: I don’t know whether to count Carl Bonnell’s likely start on November 17 as a “seasoned senior QB start” or not. Probably not.
November 27, 2007 at 11:58 am |
week 11: Oregon’s senior quarterback is lost for the season in the first quarter, after amassing 183 yards on 19 plays. Oregon loses to, and fails to cover against, Arizona. WSU’s senior quarterback loses to, and fails to cover against, OSU. I lose $220. Overall total: $1290. Net: +$290.
week 12: With Dixon out, Brink and Booty are now the only remaining “veteran” senior QBs. Both win and cover. I win $200. Overall total $1490. Net: +$490.
week 13: Booty vs. UCLA, TBD.
August 9, 2008 at 11:37 am |
Week 13: USC, featuring the Pac 10’s only remaining senior quarterback, defeats UCLA 24-7, covering the 14.5 point spread. I win $100. Overall total: $1590. Net: +$590.
59% ROI in about 14 weeks. Not bad.
August 9, 2008 at 12:42 pm |
[...] Two: Pac 10 Senior Quarterbacks I am much less enthusiastic about the “Pac 10 Senior Quarterbacks” theory than I was in 2007, owing to Oregon’s lack of one, but I remain confident that [...]