The thesis: A seasoned Pac 10 senior quarterback gives his team a huge advantage; put your money on his side of the spread and become rich. It works: see 2007 and 2008.
Alas: 2009 is not a year for seasoned Pac 10 senior quarterbacks. OSU has a corner on the market in Moevao and Canfield. The only other senior starter entering the season is ASU’s Danny “Who’s Danny Sullivan” Sullivan; I don’t know if I can define “seasoned,” but Danny Sullivan fails to pass the “Danny Sulllivan” standard for quarterback seasoning.
This means that in 2009 I am an advocate of betting money on the OSU Beavers. Eegs. In fact, as the season begins, I have no other team to bet on.
Four senior quarterbacks are backups entering the season, notably Stanford’s Pritchard and OSU’s Canfield (less notably UCLA and WSU’s two Kevins, Craft and Lopina). If (when) they get playing time, Pritchard’s 19 starts definitely qualify him as seasoned, as do Canfield’s 13 starts. (Craft and Lopina, seven starts between them, are NOT seasoned.)
(I have not formulated a theory that says “a junior quarterback with 15 starts will make money, too,” but on the basis of Jeremiah Masoli’s presence in the Junior list I would really like to.)
Pac 10 quarterbacks entering 2009:
Senior:
OSU, Lyle Moevao/SR (19 GP) (Canfield/SR/13 GP)
ASU, Danny Sullivan/SR (3 GP)
Junior:
Oregon, Jeremiah Masoli/JR (12 GP) (Costa/JR, Thomas/SO)
UW, Jake Locker/JR (13 GP) (Fouch/SO/8 GP)
Cal, Kevin Riley/JR (10 GP) (Mansion/SO, Sweeney/FR)
USC, Aaron Corp/JR (0 GP) (Barkley/FR)
Sophomore:
Arizona, Matt Scott/SO (1 GP) (Foles/SO)
WSU, Marshall Lobbestael/SO (7 GP) (Lopina/SR/2 GP)
Freshman:
Stanford, Andrew Luck (0 GP) (Pritchard/SR/19 GP)
UCLA, Kevin Prince/FR (0 GP) (Craft/SR/~5 GP)
Gambling: Week 1
PSU vs OSU: NO LINE (no bet)

What we have here, Adam, is a classic Schrödinger’s cat situation.
There used to be an Iron Law of Pac-10 football: You could not win the Pac-10 without a senior quarterback. USC has broken the iron law of Pac-10 football twice in the last three years with Leinert and Booty, but USC is in the midst of a gravity-defying run powered by an entire team of five-star superathletes.